Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Ah! Billion-dollar hat!

Ross Perot will ever regret ‘one’ missed chance...

Some mistakes are never compensated in life! And that perfectly holds true for Ross Perot. It was in 1979, when Ross Perot, the then head of Dallas-based EDS made an open offer to purchase a $2 million software entity known as Microsoft. Gates declined the offer as he wanted a fat-pig worth $40-60 million for his giant brainchild, but Perot bluntly walked away. Mistake made, and which will never be rectified. Cut to 2009, that company Microsoft, is valued at worth a most blinding $177.4 billion and Gates is the richest person in the world, with a net worth of $40 billion, almost twice Perot’s value. But all’s well that ends well, for even experts like Richard Ptak, Managing Partner, Ptak, Noel & Associates LLC, agree to that effect.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

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Sunday, December 9, 2012

ELECTIONS: ALLIANCE

The elections this year is seeing a trend' parties vying for larger pie shun pre-poll alliances

This also made a Indo-US Nuclear Deal-bitten Left Front tie-up with disparate parties like BSP, TDP, TRS and JD(S) to form a Third Front, even as Lalu, Paswan and 'old foe' Mulayam Singh Yadav have joined hands to form a Fourth Front. NDA, on the other hand, is no better, with Biju Janata Dal walking out; its old ally Shiv Sena openly courting NCP and dominant partner in Bihar, JD(U), repeatedly ranting against BJP’s new Hindutva face – Varun Gandhi. So, is the era of coalition politics over?

Not really. In fact, the current political situation is somewhat similar to 1989 or 1996, when a number regional parties came together to fight against Congress and BJP. With both BJP and Congress failing to enhance their support base, regional satraps are sensing blood. “It''s going to be a bloodbath after the elections. Small parties, who are haggling with national parties over seat distribution, will demand their pound of flesh in the run up to formation of next government,” claims a BJP General Secretary. Congress leader Kapil Sibal, justifies the trend by describing it as burgeoning aspiration of regional parties. “They want to have a bigger role at the centre and the national parties want a bigger pie in the states. UPA was a conglomeration of secular parties. We hope to come together again after the elections,” he asserts.

BJP has its own set of calculations. Riding on a high profile campaign, it hopes to emerge as the single largest party. “Once the President invites the single largest party, regional chieftains would automatically rally behind it. We will once again provide stable government for the next five years”, claims Amitabh Sinha, National Convener of BJP’s election campaign for the current elections. But, won’t that be a re-enactment of 1998-like situation when Vajpayee had to wait for two days to get letter of support from Jayalalitha, the AIADMK Chief? All eyes therefore, will be on the incumbent President. Whether she invites the single largest party or the single largest political alliance, will be something to be watched keenly.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

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Friday, December 7, 2012

A ‘Safe Express’way, but for how long?

Safexpress will need to proactively align with global best practices, says Pawan Chabra of B&E

As Victor Hugo once said, ‘There is one thing stronger than all the armies in the world, and that is an idea whose time has come.’ And logistics is an idea Indian companies need to take up fast. Efficient supply chain management solutions have been critical to the success of many companies globally, notable examples being Dell, McDonald’s & Walmart. In India’s industrial growth, however, logistics has been a critical stumbling block. The industry is still at a nascent stage, and there have been various questions asked on transparency, as a senior AFL official comments on the condition of anonymity, “In logistics, it’s important to religiously maintain transparency with clients, which we think most Indian companies don’t maintain.”

That makes companies like Safexpress, the market leader (at least in the Indian market) in good stead for this sector, which seems to have bottomless potential at present. The company has also been able to do the same successfully so far. But going forward, the industry is set to see a major transformation phase and considering that the biggest challenge ahead for Safexpress will be to maintain its leadership position. Will it or will it not be able to do so, is definitely a daunting question!

The company clocked a decent Rs.500 million turnover for the fiscal year ending March 2008 and is expecting the number to touch the Rs.650-700 million mark in FY 2009. All thanks to the huge untapped potential in the Indian logistics market and partly because of the unique services that the company offers. “We will be a Rs.1 billion organisation by 2010,” Vineet Kanaujia, General Manager – Marketing, Safexpress confidently tells B&E. Certainly, it’s quite a surprise to see a company sprint at a time when almost all the big corporate names are in love with red ink. But then you can’t be so sure of the safety of Safexpress’ dream run to 2010 as Tanuja Rai Pradhan National Head – Research & Business Analytics Group, Cushman & Wakefield asserts, “There will not be much happening in the sector till 2010 as with the slowdown in the air, logistics has also taken a hit. However, the long term picture of the sector is still bright.”


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

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Thursday, December 6, 2012

Pledges we fear...

Companies need to be proactive with disclosure of pledging

When the regulator bares its teeth, which it has done post the embarrassment of Satyam, all are guilty till proven innocent. Market regulator Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has enforced a directive to companies, which makes it mandatory for them to disclose the amount of equity that promoters have pledged over a certain period of time. Ever since the mandate came into being, numerous companies have come out in the open and disclosed details of their pledged equity. While Tata Group disclosed details of pledged shares of Tata Steel, TCS, Tata Power and Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Ltd.; Reliance ADA Group also divulged details of RCOM & R-Infra shares. Others like Kingfisher Airlines (43.8%), Shoppers Stop (33.10%), Unitech (49.48%), Parsvnath Developers (63.88%), et al, have also opened their accounts in public. So should investors be fearing more Satyam-like situations in the coming future?

In a bull run, excesses are not uncommon. But some of them do go over the top. The story of Tata’s excesses with Corus and JLR is well known. Habil Fakhruddin Khorakiwala, Promoter & Chairman, Wockhardt, is a stark example at the moment, who has pledged 43.11% stake of the company with IL&FS and IDBI. As slowdown looms and asset prices fall, the company is finding it difficult to service the debt (debt-equity ratio is currently 2.28:1) and they have kept their headquarters as a collateral and are also looking at selling some non-core assets. Wockhardt made some audacious acquisitions in the last two years and is now paying the price.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

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Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Growing, growing, gone...

Over-expansionary policy is responsible for Starbucks predicament

Recession is casting its depressive effects on stress buster lattes and cappuccinos too! Yes, at least the American born, world’s largest coffee-chain Starbucks, is proving the same. The coffee chain is passing through a lean tunnel and has further decided to cut on further fat, errr... Starbucks outlets. It announced to follow the slimdown policy over the forthcoming quarter, on a worldwide scale on January 29, 2009. Here is where the question arises: why the reduction, for isn’t coffee retailing recession-proof?

Starbucks has announced a closure of 300 stores (200 stores in US) and a further reduction of 7,000 names from their employee base. Add this to store closures announced in July, and we would stand witness to 991 outlets doing the disappearing act! Further analysis of this problem makes clear the fact that the issue at hand is clearly self-inflicted; a problem that worsened at the onset of recession as even Howard Schultz, CEO, Starbucks confessed. Around 70% of the stores that are on the red list were those opened after 2005; clear indications of a ‘wrong’ over-expansion drive.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

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Monday, December 3, 2012

THE CITI NEVER. . .

Adversity is a great teacher, and is an opportune time for some leadership lessons. US Gen. George S. Patton, who won many accolades during World War 2, was famous for his handling of adversities in warfare. During one operation in Sicily, he is said to have told one of his lieutenants that he had complete faith in him. To prove it, Patton went home and, you guessed it, slept! He used to famously quote, “Never tell people how to do things. Tell them what to do and they’ll surprise you with their ingenuity.”

Not letting down his board’s belief, it seems Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit’s classy ingenuity – and that of his valued predecessors – has not only surprised, but even shocked the damned pants of Citi’s investor groups. Look at their performance on the ingenuity scale – for an organisation that had enviable smashing profits of $24.5 billion in 2005, the six months ending June 2008 have been pure genius – a killing loss of $7.6 billion! With one top US institution filing for bankruptcy (Lehman Brothers), the other (Merrill Lynch) being taken over by another (Bank of America), and the IMF estimate of gross losses suffered by the industry because of the sub-prime crisis crossing a gut wrenching $1 trillion, is Citigroup – one of the worst hit institutions in the US – going to be the next disaster on the West Coast? Boasting an asset size close to $2.1 trillion as on 2008 [double that of, say, India’s GDP], if Citi falls, Patton or no Patton, nobody’s going to sleep again for many months!

Not the least Victor J. Menezes, retd. Senior Vice Chairman of Citigroup, who reverted to us commenting, “I do not wish to get involved in any such media interactions concerning Citibank.” Truly speaking, the problems that Citigroup had piled up for itself were there for everybody to see; and as surprising as the analysis might be, the fact is nobody was ready to bell the billion-dollar pig and send it to the butcher’s. That Citi’s future is in grave danger can be easily viewed from the way share prices have plummeted. It’s a massacre on the bourses, with Citi’s share price falling from $55 in January 2007 to a pathetic $14 on September 17, 2008!

On September 15, 2008, Citi’s shares plunged by 15%, & on September 16, by another 7%, as news of Citi’s exposure to Lehman’s bankruptcy came to light. Lehman named Citigroup amongst its “largest unsecured creditors,” with a numbing $138 billion of Citigroup’s money tied up in unsecured Lehman bonds. Consider that Lehman’s gross outstanding debt is $613 billion dollars! So Citi is exposed to almost an unbelievable 23% of Lehman’s crash!


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

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Sunday, December 2, 2012

Hey! I’m leavin’ dude…

As Dunlop cuts production, other tyre manufacturers should consider following suit

The tyre industry in India has evolved in myriad ways in terms of technology over the years. So much that they can withstand some of the rudest shocks that Indian roads can throw at them. But unfortunately, there is one huge, long bump the Indian tyre industry may not be able to shield itself from; the economic one.

The sector (forecasted on a growth path for at least 5 years as recently as May, 2008 by CARE) is not going through its best times. Dunlop’s suspension of production at its Shahgunj facility is a case in point. More importantly, Dunlop’s move has again raised questions on India’s credibility as a viable destination for manufacturing tyres.

Going by figures, the tyre industry posted a CAGR of 9.69% during the time frame of 2002-2007, in a situation where almost 40% of the industry’s turnover comprises of exports and the rest 60% is the replacement market. And as auto expert Murad Ali Baig asserts, “There is enormous scope for the tyre industry as against every vehicle, the replacement demand is very huge in India.” So, fundamentals of the industry are undoubtedly very strong, but with recessionary pressures and prevailing slowdown in the auto sector, the tyre industry has also taken a beating. Exports are bound to fall for the tyre industry in the period of this economic meltdown.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

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Friday, November 30, 2012

GEORGE W. BUSH: LEGACY

Bush during his tenure has made many mistakes, but that doesn’t give us a chance to write him off

It was followed by the tragic day of 9/11, which no American can ever forget in his life. Bush at first came out as a hero, with support and in full confidence, showing that he was in full command of things. But his later actions were said to be the outcome of how dumb and undecided he had been.

His war on terror and his actions in Afghanistan at first bore fruits, as Afghanistan shifted from an anti-American to pro-American government. But his forces have still not been able to nab Osama bin Laden – the mastermind behind the 9/11 attack. He tried to redeem himself by attacking Iraq, but unfortunately the entire episode fell flat on his face and instead of becoming a hero, he was vehemently criticised for what is called the worst decision of his tenure. Blaming Saddam Hussein for storing ‘weapons of mass destruction’ and then forging a war on Iraq, even though the UN was against it, showed his arrogance and stubborn attitude. It costed America heavily – both in terms of money as well as people. But the biggest harm of the war on Iraq was it tagged America as the greedy superpower of the new world, with no aim other than to put its stamp on everything and then force the world to go its way.

Uncannily, even nature played its part to show how bad Bush’s administration has been. Hurricane Katrina destroyed the Gulf Coast, which has not been built yet. Bush’s second tenure was worse than his first one. People were unhappy and his approval ratings hovered around 30%. Meanwhile, two-thirds of the American people disapproved of the job he was doing in Washington. Americans were feeling the heat of the upcoming crisis. Oil was costlier, housing prices were constantly going down; healthcare had became costlier as the Bush administration had turned the control of healthcare in the hands of greedy pharmaceutical companies. He turned his back to the obvious – ignored climate changes, obstructed efforts to clean air and water so that corporations could earn higher profits. It was during Bush''s tenure that American workers faced their rights being assaulted and were stopped from forming unions – all this to ensure that corporations could see their profits rising. Then the sub-prime crisis happened and America lost its capitalist model.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Thursday, November 29, 2012

122? Worse...

The report’s incomplete; rejoice!

The World Bank’s recent study on the overall ease of doing business shows that India dropped two places to 122 in the latest edition of the World Bank’s ‘Doing Business’ report, after rising 12 notches last year.

The factors responsible for India’s low ranking, among others, include inefficient enforcement of contracts, outdated insolvency laws, delays in construction permits and under developed payment facilities; besides India’s contentious polity, with some regional leaders at odds with industrialisation. Despite its low position, India has been ranked as the top reformer worldwide for trading across the borders, one reason for the previously mentioned jump of 12 ranks over last year. India, creditably, made the reform of business regulation a policy objective. India improved significantly when it comes to areas such as getting credit, trading across the world, but its position has weakened in areas such as starting a business, employing workers, registering property, paying taxes and closing taxes.

It is worthwhile to mention that the rankings do not reflect such areas as macroeconomic policy, quality of infrastructure, currency volatility, investor perceptions, or crime rates.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Wednesday, November 28, 2012

PUNJAB: RAHUL GANDHI'S VISIT

The MP from Amethi needs to stand up to his Punjabi promises

Rahul’s road shows attracted crowds and the of course omnipresent media. The Congress in Punjab has been in shambles due to infighting between two former Chief Ministers – Amarinder Singh & Rajinder Kaur Bhathal. Amarider’s recent expulsion from the Punjab Assembly on grounds of corruption has further tarnished the party’s image.

Rahul during the trip also visited Congress supporters who were allegedly tortured by the Akalis. "He assured us that we will get justice," said Harbans Singh, the brother of a Congress worker who was recently attacked by the Akalis. Rahul needs to meet these expectations to yield results from his sojourn with Punjab.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Pakistan's cups of terror woes

Explosives laden truck rips apart Pakistan's security machinery

At least 53 persons, including Czech Ambassador to Pakistan, Ivo Zdarek, two US marines, and a Vietnamese woman were killed and more than 250 injured in a suicide bombing at Marriot Hotel in Islamabad on September 20. The blast made a mockery of President Asif Ali Zardari's speech the very same evening at the joint session of the Parliament, where he vowed to root out terrorism and extremism. The bombing took place in a high security area of the capital city, not far from the Parliament, the Presidential Palace and the Prime Minister’s residence.

Though no terrorist group has claimed responsibility of the blast – one of the deadliest in Pakistan's history – Prime Minister's advisor on Interior Affairs, Rehman Malik has gone on record to state that the blast has links with Waziristan, indicating that Al Qaeda and Taliban could be involved in it.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Monday, November 26, 2012

Think Again: Bush’s Legacy

He may be the most unpopular president in modern times: a reckless, unilateralist cowboy. But history will be kinder to George W. Bush than contemporary caricatures. After eight years, he leaves behind much more than a defeated dictator in Iraq. Closer ties to India, a pragmatic relationship with China, and the pressure he applied to Iran will pay dividends for years to come. By David Frum

(Ed note: His detractors may far outnumber the population of the great country he has presided over for a lengthy period of eight years, but the Bush regime in retrospect may prove to be far more productive than it seems on the surface. The author identifies some common ‘perceptions’ regarding the Bush era and attempts to look at the larger picture.)

“iraq is bush’s only foreign-policy legacy”
Hardly. There’s no denying that the war in Iraq has defined the presidency of George W. Bush in important ways. But history is unlikely to remember the war as negatively as most assume.
It’s now likely that the war will stagger to an inconclusive ending. The insurgency will shrink but not disappear. The government will function but will be divided. US military presence will be reduced but not entirely withdrawn. And Iraq’s neighbours will be bruised but their geopolitical policies will stay intact. Yet, by overthrowing Saddam Hussein and replacing him with a non-aggressive, albeit weak, elected regime, the US will have achieved a real improvement in the region. It will have come at a high cost. But it will also falsify the worst predictions of the war’s opponents. As the war recedes into history, it’ll be seen more like the frustrating Korean conflict, or the Philippine insurrection, rather than the debacle of Vietnam. An important part of Bush’s legacy, but hardly all-defining.

As time passes, other crucial decisions of the Bush years will come into sharper focus. Among the most important will be the formation of a US-India military alliance. Under Bush, US and India (along with Australia, Japan, and Singapore) have begun joint naval exercises. The duo signed a treaty to share nuclear materials in 2007. US is offering India fighter planes, warships, and other equipment sales that could total as much as $100 billion during the next 10 years. Otto von Bismarck once famously predicted that the most important geopolitical fact of the 20th century would be that the US and Britain spoke the same language.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Sunday, November 25, 2012

Indian auto components sector is all set for a glorious future

Led by huge demand, the Indian auto components sector is all set for a glorious future

No doubt, India enjoys a cost advantage with respect to casting and forging as production costs in India are 25-30% lower than their western counterparts. However, with increase in input costs and rising steel prices, the industry now seems to lose this price advantage to their Asian peers including China, Thailand, et al as these players offer a cost advantage of about 12% over their Indian counterparts. Moreover, “the auto components industry in India today is highly fragmented.

However, this presents a simultaneous opportunity as well as a challenge for the players,” avers Yezdi Nagporewalla, Auto analyst with KPMG. These factors, coupled with an unfavourable tariff regime, are now pushing India towards becoming a net importer of auto components. Moreover, “concerns about quality also remain. We still lack original R&D activities. But I am sure that these issues will get resolved soon,” adds Minda. However, “the challenge is to manage the rising cost of raw material and at the same time stay competitive,” avers N. K. Dhand, Chairman and MD, MGT.

Certainly the industry is transforming, and the boost in demand will see the emergence of several new players in the industry. But, to improve upon the domestic auto component industry, the players surely need to adhere to global standards, be quality conscious, inculcate some original R&D activities while maintaining globally acceptable innovative standards.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Saturday, November 24, 2012

The true test of survival starts now...

Nirula’s acquisition has brought in welcome change. But the true test of survival starts now...

ENAM Securities in 2007 demonstrated that Indian consumers spend 51% of private final consumption expenditure on eating out. Malaysia-based Navis Capital, which manages funds worth $1.6 billion, wanted to bet big in the fiercely growing Indian QSR market and Nirula’s was the route they chose. “Navis supported with the necessary funds and we started totally revamping the organisation,” says Samir Kuchreja, CEO & MD, Nirula’s Group. While the logic was not questionable, have the acquirers been able to achieve the intended?

The biggest challenge for such an acquisition has been on the cultural front. Admits Samir, “It was difficult to convert a family-run business into a professionally run one, but we knew we had to implement such changes to survive in the competition.” From management model to food menu, there was an elephantine transformation post the acquisition that reverberated throughout the organisation. Products that didn’t contribute much to the company’s turnover were hived off. Bucked up by the financial expertise of Navis and the deft leadership of Samir, Nirula’s started aggressively spreading its reach. And what it couldn’t achieve in seven decades, was achieved in seven months. Till 2006, the company has grown at 10% and last year it has recorded a growth of more than 40%. There’s more! In seventy years, they opened just 4 to 5 outlets, but in seven months they rolled out 12 to 15 outlets. And the current number of outlets is 60. Now the company has resorted to the time-honoured franchisee route for a pan-India presence. “We tied up with South Asian Hospitality to open stores in Rajasthan and in Gujarat; Goa we are looking for franchisees,” affirms Samir. With an exorbitant investment of Rs.1.5 billion, the company plans to roll out 200 stores globally by 2011. Samir announces that he’s all set for UAE to hunt for a franchisee partner. Truly this acquisition has brought fresh energy to the company, but now that it faces the thick of global and local competition, its true sustainability will be tested.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Thursday, November 22, 2012

Guns & Roses; Smith & Wesson

The other view on the US Supreme Court ruling rejecting gun control

There were shots of elation fired after the US Federal Court acknowledged an individual’s gun ownership right in the Second Amendment of the US Constitution. The Federal Court observed that the 2nd Amendment’s text guards an individual’s right, not just a group right that applies merely to affiliates of state militias.

Though many blocks have criticised this court ruling (including this publication’s Scrutiny section), the fact is that this in no way proves the establishment is anti gun control. The verdict of the Federal Court was clearly fractured where the bench of 9 judges gave a 5:4 split ruling, clearly along ideological lines. Moreover, the court also observed that all constitutional rights including the most fundamental rights are open to limitations of sorts and have to yield to restrictions in order to keep up a methodical and secure society. The ruling in no way means that one would now see a trigger-happy population shooting their mouths and guns off! Residents would still have to keep their firearms disabled and unloaded at almost all times – a move that hasn’t been received well by the pro gun lobby.

Even Steven Shapiro of the American Civil Liberties Union, that played an important role in facilitating the suit, confirmed to B&E, “We are still trying to figure out the characteristic of this court. Last fall, it initiated an antagonistic assault on nucleus doctrine affecting race and abortion issues.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Who says charity begins at home?

More and more people are tripping on philanthropic travel!

When asked if one had all the time and money, what would one do; most would say, ‘travel’. And why not? It’s exciting to laze by the beach, trek in the hills, anticipate the movements of an animal in the wild and drown oneself in the bustle of a big city. But how many travellers delve into the soul of the destination, by really understanding its culture and people? Not many. However, there are a growing number of people travelling to the lesser-privileged parts of the world, attempting to blend in with the natives and lend a helping hand wherever possible.

Philanthropic travel as a concept is still at a nascent stage, although it has gained popularity in the US. There are NGOs that sponsor and arrange such jaunts, the most traversed destinations being Burma, Cambodia, Botswana, Tanzania and India.

Marc Gold is a philanthropic traveller, and in 1989 he had visited Darjeeling for a vacation. Here, he met a girl who was suffering from a life-threatening disease. The girl’s folks were incapable of affording the treatment and so Marc donated funds for her medication and treatment. This kind gesture of Marc’s saved a life and brought back happiness to a family that had almost lost hope. Marc now visits various places with the objective of not just absorbing their beauty and interacting with the people, but with the intention of reaching out to those in need.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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